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"Black Swan" has already left

04 september 2016, 08:47

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Nothing good in the world happens need to get used to living in a perpetual storm. This is a brief summary of the first day of the International financial Congress which is held in Saint-Petersburg. The Congress talked a lot about the black Swan and one of the guests was king of the economic horrors of the chief economist at HSBC Stephen king. The Correspondent Of The Tape.<url> watch how the government, bankers and experts scare each other.

The world is rapidly changing and transformation is highly in demand. This is the first idea expressed by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina at the International financial Congress. In General, due to the thrust to transform the event and change the sign before it was called just the Bank of Congress.

The official mascot the mascot of the updated forum could well become the black Swan. Rare bird flew into the economic dictionaries the efforts of the American trader Nassim Taleb mentioned by virtually every speaker. The theory of the black Swan examines the unpredictable and often catastrophic events have a significant impact on the financial and economic system. In recent times, such events happen more often.

Black swans in the financial markets are not uncommon stated Elvira. In recent years, there are three of them. First, the Federal system of the U.S. Federal reserve announced the tapering of quantitative easing and have stopped injecting money into the us economy through the purchase of assets. Then collapsed oil prices. Then I had to consider the risks manifested in the economy of China.

One black Swan has already left it's Brexit said the head of the Central Bank. She added that the direct impact of a British exit from the EU on the Russian financial system will be limited. Domestic markets are relatively easily moved increased volatility she said and went back to the theme of change.

Nabiullina said that Brexit is a vivid example of the fact that people seek to change are mostly economic. Low growth lack of advanced technologies aging population there are several reasons for frustration of evidence, which were the results of a British referendum.

In the face of uncertainty is the growth of risk and the emergence of global threats is very easy to fall into populism and naprinimali a lot of bad decisions. In Russia, like easy recipes but they are extremely dangerous sure the head of the Central Bank for Example promises that typing one-two-three trillion rubles and issuing them in the form of cheap loans, we will get a sustainable acceleration in economic growth. The second seductive freezing rate. Under it is even supplied pseudo-base, said Elvira Nabiullina.

No names or posts it is not named but is clearly meant to someone in particular someone who is in favour of exchange controls or pumping the economy with cheap money. Both regularly offers, for example, the presidential Advisor academician Sergei Glazyev.

He recall accused the Bank of Russia in the madness. Glazyev also said that the regulator's policy led to economic disaster.

The President of the Mexican investment company BTG Pactual Guillermo Ortiz came to St. Petersburg to talk about the work of the regulator in his country. Were Russia and Mexico are very similar to each other.

Latin American countries have experienced a long series of economic problems which ran from exacerbations since 1985. It culminated tekiloy crisis of 1994. It mixed all the Zapatista uprising of left-wing radicals who wanted to foment revolution across the country, but it turned out only in the state of Chiapas, a sharp fall of investment attractiveness of the collapse of the local stock exchanges and depletion of reserves. 1 Nov Mexico was $ 29 billion by the end of December was less than four.

The Mexican Central Bank followed the path chosen today by the Bank of Russia. Was set the target of three percent inflation goal by the way is implemented. Peso was allowed to float freely. Conducted tight monetary policy. Inflation is something that always confuses people. When inflation drops to 2-3 percent of people are no longer to worry about it so Ortiz justified the choice of figure is three percent. True, he did not mention one detail Mexico was actively helped by the whole world. She received more than $ 50 billion from the US, Japan, ECB and the IMF.

The namesake of the American king of horror, the chief economist of the British Finance Corporation HSBC Stephen king started doing what he does best to frighten and warn. I have a very long list of things that I'm worried he replied to the request Nabiullina to talk about global economic risks. And began to list.

First, the United States economy may not recover for seven years. There is a very real risk that it will slide into recession. Rescue boats are no longer evidenced by the fed's policy in the past at the slightest improvement of the situation the fed lifted the rate it has now frozen at extremely low levels 025-050 percent.

Secondly Brexit. The full force of its effects will be felt by the British pound weakening price growth the fall in real incomes but the referendum has become a challenge for the whole of Europe.

Third in the world now actively going currency war. If one country devalues the currency and the other is not is well said Stephen king. The problem arises when many countries at once weaken the national currency. So economic difficulties in China caused by the devaluation in other States said the king. Many countries due to the depreciation of the currency exported its own problems in China. As a result, the growth rate of China's GDP fall and suffer everything.

Anyway but Russia remains dependent on external conditions. Assessment of the Central Bank falling, the PRC's GDP by one percentage point would reduce the Russian economy by half a percentage point.

Another sore point in oil prices. Quick return to high quotations will not happen Nabiullina believes. The Russian economy must learn to live in conditions of low oil and gas prices. And we should abandon the habit to associate a optimistic with the growing price of oil, she said.

Thus Nabiullina called for the introduction of fiscal rules. $ 50 per barrel that's a possible price cut. Oil and gas revenues above this level should be reserved. According to the Central Bank, a fiscal rule would help reduce Russia's dependence on commodity prices.

In this question the head of the Bank of Russia entered into a polemic with Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukaev. At the St. Petersburg international economic forum which was held in mid-June, the official criticized the very concept of a fiscal rule linking it with the low quality of public administration. We need a fiscal rule we need the right budget, he stressed. The speaker urged not to focus on the quotes and forget about oil all the precepts of the Nobel laureate Christopher Pissarides. The chances that this price of oil will be correct exactly the same as out on the street to meet the green monkey 50 percent. Either meet or not meet in the same way and with the price of oil sneered the speaker.

But Ulyukayev and Elvira definitely agree. Now Russia has sharply escalated the need for structural reforms. Without them, the Central Bank will fail to help the economy the tools of the regulator is extremely limited. Only systemic change will help to overcome the ceiling of potential growth which occurred over the country. It is limited to 15-2 per cent per year. The main thing you need to do to improve the business climate especially the protection of property rights, stressed the Chairman of the Bank of Russia. Well, the regulator will try to bring down inflation to four percent by the end of 2017, which should ensure macroeconomic stability.

But business not only in stability. As a bonus, Elvira Nabiullina monument. At least this is actively encouraged by the head of RUSNANO Anatoly Chubais, If the Central Bank next year will reduce inflation even up to four percent and five already for it is certainly possible to put a monument to Ms. Nabiullina. Without irony, I say seriously.

However the leadership of the Central Bank promised a lot of things. Launch them into space for example. All for the sake of the panoramic view on the Russian economy after a sharp increase in the key rate to 17 percent is offered billionaire Oleg Deripaska.

But while the space and the monument to the Affairs of a distant and uncertain prospects. And inflation is really slowing down.

Marat Seleznyov

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